Purpose of the Review

Climate change presents significant risks to the international trade and supply chain systems with potentially profound and cascading effects for the global economy. A robust international trade system may also be central to managing future climate risks. Here, we assess the treatment (or lack thereof) of trade in a selection of recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment and special reports using a quantitative text analysis. IPCC reports are considered the preeminent source of relevant climate change information and underpin international climate change negotiations.

Study Findings

Results show that international trade has not had substantial coverage in recent IPCC assessments. Relevant keywords associated with trade appear in very limited ways, generally in relation to the words “product” and “transport.” These keywords are often referring to emissions associated with transportation and the movement of food and global food systems. The influence of trade is given larger consideration with respect to the costs and trade-offs of climate mitigation policies, especially the interactions with food availability, that appear in Working Group III reports compared with the risks to trade from climate change impacts in Working Group II. Trade in relation to other economic sectors is largely absent as well as risks from potential climate-related trade disruption. There is almost no treatment of the potential impacts, risks, and adaptation strategies to manage the climate related-implications for international trade.

Recommendations

Given the importance of trade to economic growth, we recommend that additional attention be paid to trade and related economic issues in future IPCC assessment and special reports, specifically on the interactions of climate impacts and risks on trade and the potential for trade to moderate these risks. To achieve this, there must be efforts to increase the base of scientific literature focused on climate change and international trade as well as increased effort made among IPCC lead authors to review trade literature that may lie outside conventional climate change scholarship.

中文翻译：

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政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）报告中对国际经济贸易的处理

审查的目的

气候变化给国际贸易和供应链系统带来了重大风险，可能对全球经济产生深远的连锁影响。健全的国际贸易体系也可能是管理未来气候风险的核心。在这里，我们使用定量文本分析来评估近期政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 评估和特别报告中的贸易待遇（或缺乏待遇）。 IPCC 报告被认为是相关气候变化信息的重要来源，也是国际气候变化谈判的基础。

研究结果

结果显示，IPCC 最近的评估并未大量涵盖国际贸易。与贸易相关的相关关键词以非常有限的方式出现，通常与“产品”和“运输”相关。这些关键词通常指与运输、粮食流动和全球粮食系统相关的排放。与第二工作组报告中气候变化影响对贸易的风险相比，第三工作组报告中在气候减缓政策的成本和权衡方面，特别是与粮食供应的相互作用，更多地考虑了贸易的影响。与其他经济部门相关的贸易基本上不存在，也没有潜在的气候相关贸易中断的风险。几乎没有讨论管理国际贸易气候相关影响的潜在影响、风险和适应策略。

建议

鉴于贸易对经济增长的重要性，我们建议在未来的IPCC评估和特别报告中额外关注贸易和相关经济问题，特别是气候影响和风险对贸易的相互作用以及贸易缓解这些风险的潜力。为了实现这一目标，必须努力增加关注气候变化和国际贸易的科学文献基础，并加大IPCC主要作者的努力，审查可能超出传统气候变化学术范围的贸易文献。