Global climate change is predicted to alter precipitation and temperature patterns across the world, affecting a range of infectious diseases and particularly foodborne infections such as Campylobacter. In this study, we used national surveillance data to analyse the relationship between climate and campylobacteriosis in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden and estimate the impact of climate changes on future disease patterns. We show that Campylobacter incidences are linked to increases in temperature and especially precipitation in the week before illness, suggesting a non-food transmission route. These four countries may experience a doubling of Campylobacter cases by the end of the 2080s, corresponding to around 6,000 excess cases per year caused only by climate changes. Considering the strong worldwide burden of campylobacteriosis, it is important to assess local and regional impacts of climate change in order to initiate timely public health management and adaptation strategies.

预计全球气候变化将改变世界各地的降水和温度模式，影响一系列传染病，特别是弯曲杆菌等食源性感染。在这项研究中，我们利用国家监测数据分析了丹麦、芬兰、挪威和瑞典的气候与弯曲菌病之间的关系，并估计了气候变化对未来疾病模式的影响。我们发现弯曲杆菌的发病率与气温升高有关，尤其是发病前一周的降水量升高，这表明弯曲杆菌的传播途径非食物。到 2080 年代末，这四个国家的弯曲杆菌病例可能会增加一倍，相当于每年仅因气候变化而导致的病例数量增加约 6,000 例。考虑到弯曲菌病在全球范围内造成的沉重负担，评估气候变化对当地和区域的影响非常重要，以便及时启动公共卫生管理和适应战略。