Global climate change is predicted to alter precipitation and temperature patterns across the world, affecting a range of infectious diseases and particularly foodborne infections such as Campylobacter. In this study, we used national surveillance data to analyse the relationship between climate and campylobacteriosis in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden and estimate the impact of climate changes on future disease patterns. We show that Campylobacter incidences are linked to increases in temperature and especially precipitation in the week before illness, suggesting a non-food transmission route. These four countries may experience a doubling of Campylobacter cases by the end of the 2080s, corresponding to around 6,000 excess cases per year caused only by climate changes. Considering the strong worldwide burden of campylobacteriosis, it is important to assess local and regional impacts of climate change in order to initiate timely public health management and adaptation strategies.

预计全球气候变化将改变世界各地的降水和温度模式，影响一系列传染病，尤其是食源性感染，如弯曲杆菌。在这项研究中，我们使用国家监测数据来分析丹麦、芬兰、挪威和瑞典的气候与弯曲杆菌病之间的关系，并估计气候变化对未来疾病模式的影响。我们表明，弯曲杆菌的发病率与温度升高有关，尤其是患病前一周的降水，这表明是一种非食物传播途径。这四个国家可能会经历弯曲杆菌的两倍到 2080 年代末，每年仅由气候变化引起的病例增加约 6,000 例。考虑到弯曲杆菌病在全球范围内造成的巨大负担，评估气候变化对地方和区域的影响以启动及时的公共卫生管理和适应战略非常重要。