巴基斯坦上印度河上游水文气象时间序列的时空变化,Advances in Meteorology

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巴基斯坦上印度河上游水文气象时间序列的时空变化
Advances in Meteorology ( IF 2.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-30 , DOI: 10.1155/2020/5852760
Muhammad Yaseen ₁ , Ijaz Ahmad ₂ , Jiali Guo ₃ , Muhammad Imran Azam ₃ , Yasir Latif ₄

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本文研究了水文气象时间序列的时空变化，以评估印度河上游（UIB）水资源可利用性的当前和未来情景。使用Mann-Kendall和Sen的斜率估计器检验来分析1963年至2014年期间27个气象站和34个水文站的温度，降水和水流时间序列数据的变异性。整个研究的时间序列数据将这段时期分为两个相等的子系列，每个子系列分别为26年（1963–1988年和1989–2014年），以评估UIB上气候变化加速的重叠方面。结果表明，低海拔站出现了变暖模式，而高海拔站出现了降温趋势。在所有水文站，冬季和春季都出现了流量增加的趋势，而夏季和秋季的流量呈现出下降的趋势。在研究期的第二个子系列中，十个站的年降水量显示出显着的下降趋势，而Kohat站的观测到显着的增长趋势。在第二个子系列中，在古皮斯，Chitral，加里多帕塔和纳兰站观测到最明显的冬季干燥趋势，分别为47％，13％，25％和18％。在第二个时间序列中，年度径流量在Azad Pattan，Chinari，Domel Kohala，Muzaffarabad和Palote的Jhelum子流域表现出明显的下降趋势，而在Chahan，Gurriala，Khiirabad，Karora和Kalam的印度河盆地内。

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Spatiotemporal Variability in the Hydrometeorological Time-Series over Upper Indus River Basin of Pakistan

This paper investigates the spatiotemporal variability in hydrometeorological time-series to evaluate the current and future scenarios of water resources availability from upper Indus basin (UIB). Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator tests were used to analyze the variability in the temperature, precipitation, and streamflow time-series data at 27 meteorological stations and 34 hydrological stations for the period of 1963 to 2014. The time-series data of entire study period were divided into two equal subseries of 26 years each (1963–1988 and 1989–2014) to assess the overlapping aspect of climate change acceleration over UIB. The results showed a warming pattern at low altitude stations, while a cooling tendency was detected at high-altitude stations. An increase in streamflow was detected during winter and spring seasons at all hydrological stations, whereas the streamflow in summer and autumn seasons exhibited decreasing trends. The annual precipitation showed a significant decreasing trend at ten stations, while a significant increasing trend was observed at Kohat station during second subseries of the study period. The most significant winter drying trends were observed at Gupis, Chitral, Garidopatta, and Naran stations of magnitude of 47%, 13%, 25%, and 18%, respectively, during the second subseries. The annual runoff exhibited significant deceasing trends over Jhelum subbasin at Azad Pattan, Chinari, Domel Kohala, Muzaffarabad, and Palote, while within Indus basin at Chahan, Gurriala, Khairabad, Karora, and Kalam in the second time-series. It is believed that the results of this study will be helpful for the decision-makers to develop strategies for planning and development of future water resources projects.

更新日期：2020-04-30

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