Abstract Climate change adds an additional pressure on mangrove health, and the present study evaluated mangroves' vulnerability to sea level rises at four sites (Los Petenes, Celestun, Cancun, and Mahahual) on the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. Exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were evaluated on a scale from 1 to 5 to identify characteristics that cause the mangrove vulnerability. Mangroves in sites with different characteristics had different vulnerabilities, despite having similar exposure. The best-conserved mangroves had low vulnerability and were in good health because of their sensitivity, whereas mangroves affected by human activity were more vulnerable in terms of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Overall, Mahahual had the highest vulnerability (3.0) because of its low tidal range (~5 cm), changes in precipitation (−25 mm year−1), poor ecological conditions (low basal area without positive changes), low resilience of adjacent ecosystems (poor condition of coral reefs and seagrass meadows), and poor mangrove protection. This vulnerability assessment method identifies factors that affect vulnerability and can be used to develop management strategies that decrease mangrove vulnerability to climate change by reducing sensitivity and increasing the adaptive capacity of the ecosystem and the surrounding communities.

中文翻译：

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红树林生态系统对气候变化影响的脆弱性：尤卡坦半岛的案例

摘要 气候变化给红树林健康增加了额外压力，本研究评估了墨西哥尤卡坦半岛四个地点（洛斯佩特内斯、塞莱斯顿、坎昆和马哈瓦尔）的红树林对海平面上升的脆弱性。对暴露、敏感性和适应能力进行了从 1 到 5 的评估，以确定导致红树林脆弱性的特征。尽管具有相似的暴露程度，但具有不同特征的站点中的红树林具有不同的脆弱性。保存最完好的红树林由于其敏感性而脆弱性较低且健康状况良好，而受人类活动影响的红树林在敏感性和适应能力方面更脆弱。总体而言，由于潮差低（~5 cm），Mahahual 的脆弱性最高（3.0），降水变化（-25 mm 年-1）、生态条件差（低基础面积没有积极变化）、邻近生态系统的低恢复力（珊瑚礁和海草草地条件差）和红树林保护差。这种脆弱性评估方法确定了影响脆弱性的因素，可用于制定管理策略，通过降低敏感度和提高生态系统和周围社区的适应能力来降低红树林对气候变化的脆弱性。