Purpose of Review

Understanding the changes in climate variability in a warming climate is crucial for reliable projections of future climate change. This article reviews the recent progress in studies of how climate modes in the Indo-Pacific respond to greenhouse warming, including the consensus and uncertainty across climate models.

Recent Findings

Recent studies revealed a range of robust changes in the properties of climate modes, often associated with the mean state changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific. In particular, the intermodel diversity in the ocean warming pattern is a prominent source of uncertainty in mode changes. The internal variability also plays an important role in projected changes in climate modes.

Summary

Model biases and intermodel variability remain major challenges for reducing uncertainty in projecting climate mode changes in warming climate. Improved models and research linking simulated present-day climate and future changes are essential for reliable projections of climate mode changes. In addition, large ensembles should be used for each model to reduce the uncertainty from internal variability and isolate the forced response to global warming.

中文翻译：

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气候变暖中的印度-太平洋气候模式：模型预测的共识和不确定性

审查目的

了解气候变暖过程中气候变率的变化对于可靠预测未来气候变化至关重要。本文回顾了印度-太平洋地区气候模式如何应对温室变暖的研究最新进展，包括气候模式的共识和不确定性。

最近的发现

最近的研究揭示了气候模式特性的一系列剧烈变化，通常与热带印度太平洋地区的平均状态变化有关。特别是，海洋变暖模式中模式间的多样性是模式变化不确定性的一个突出来源。内部变率在气候模式的预计变化中也发挥着重要作用。

概括

模型偏差和模型间变异性仍然是减少预测气候变暖过程中气候模式变化的不确定性的主要挑战。将模拟的当前气候和未来变化联系起来的改进模型和研究对于气候模式变化的可靠预测至关重要。此外，每个模型都应使用大型集合，以减少内部变异性的不确定性，并隔离对全球变暖的强制响应。