Purpose of Review

Atmospheric circulation exerts a strong control on regional climate and extremes. However, projections of future circulation change remain uncertain, thus affecting the assessment of regional climate change. The purpose of this review is to describe some key cases where regional precipitation and windiness strongly depend on the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation response to warming, and summarise this into alternative plausible storylines of regional climate change.

Recent Findings

Recent research has enabled to better quantify the importance of dynamical aspects of climate change in shaping regional climate. The cold season precipitation response in Mediterranean-like regions is identified as one of the most susceptible impact-relevant aspects of regional climate driven by mid-latitude circulation changes. A circulation-forced drying might already be emerging in the actual Mediterranean, Chile and southwestern Australia. Increasing evidence indicates that distinct regional changes in atmospheric circulation and European windiness might unfold depending on the interplay of different climate drivers, such as surface warming patterns, sea ice loss and stratospheric changes.

Summary

The multi-model mean circulation response to warming tends to show washed-out signals due to the lack of robustness in the model projections, with implications for regional changes. To better communicate the information contained within these projections, it is useful to discuss regional climate change conditionally on alternative plausible storylines of atmospheric circulation change. As progress continues in understanding the factors driving the response of circulation to global warming, developing such storylines will provide end–to–end and physically self-consistent descriptions of plausible future unfoldings of regional climate change.

中文翻译：

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中纬度大气环流未来变化对区域气候的影响：故事情节

审查目的

大气环流对区域气候和极端事件有很强的控制作用。然而，对未来环流变化的预测仍存在不确定性，从而影响了区域气候变化的评估。本综述的目的是描述一些关键案例，其中区域降水和风度强烈依赖于中纬度大气环流对变暖的响应，并将其总结为区域气候变化的替代合理故事情节。

最近的发现

最近的研究能够更好地量化气候变化动态方面在塑造区域气候方面的重要性。类地中海地区的冷季降水响应被认为是中纬度环流变化驱动的区域气候中最容易受到影响的方面之一。在地中海地区、智利和澳大利亚西南部，循环强制干燥可能已经出现。越来越多的证据表明，大气环流和欧洲风的明显区域变化可能会根据不同气候驱动因素的相互作用而发生，例如地表变暖模式、海冰消失和平流层变化。

概括

由于模型预测缺乏稳健性，多模型平均环流对变暖的响应往往会显示出褪色的信号，并对区域变化产生影响。为了更好地传达这些预测中包含的信息，有条件地根据大气环流变化的替代合理故事情节讨论区域气候变化是有用的。随着对推动环流对全球变暖的反应的因素的理解不断取得进展，开发这样的故事情节将为区域气候变化未来可能的发展提供端到端的、物理上自洽的描述。