葡萄牙超级联赛比赛的得分顺序分析。,Journal of Human Kinetics

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葡萄牙超级联赛比赛的得分顺序分析。
Journal of Human Kinetics ( IF 1.9 ) Pub Date : 2018-11-16 , DOI: 10.1515/hukin-2017-0199
José M Pratas ₁ , Anna Volossovitch ₁ , Ana I Carita ₂

Affiliation

这项研究的目的是根据一系列不同的比赛背景，检查足球比赛中前两个进球的顺序。使用描述性统计数据和卡方检验分析了连续六个赛季（2009-10年至2014-2015年）在葡萄牙超级联赛中进行的1506场比赛的数据，以验证变量之间的关联性并使用Cox回归分析以根据比赛和计分线上第一个进球的时间预测第二个进球的进入时间。结果显示，在比赛的下半场（每半场的最后5分钟），第二个进球得分的频率更高（58％）。发现主队和得分加倍目标呈正相关（58％），以及客队和得分均等的目标（56％）。对于主队和客队，比赛的得分加倍目标与主队（93％）和客队（92％）的获胜结果密切相关，而得分均等的目标与平局（主场和客队：44％）和输球结果（主场：33％，客队：32％）。最后，考克斯模型显示，如果在比赛的后半段第一个进球进球，则第二个进球的概率是上半场的三倍。

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Analysis of Scoring Sequences in Matches of the Portuguese Premier League.

The aim of this study was to examine the sequences of the first two goals scored in soccer matches in accordance with a range of different match contexts. Data from 1506 matches played in the Portuguese Premier League during six consecutive competitive seasons (2009-10 to 2014-2015) were analysed using descriptive statistics and the chi-square test in order to verify the association between variables and a Cox regression analysis was used to predict the time the second goal was scored in function of the time of the first goal scored in the match and the scoreline. The results revealed a higher frequency of the second goals being scored in the second half of a match (58%) and in the last 5 min periods of each half. A positive association was found for home teams and score-doubling goals (58%), as well as for away teams and score-equalizing goals (56%). For home and away teams the score-doubling goal of a match was strongly and positively associated with a win outcome for home (93%) and away teams (92%), while the score-equalizing goals were associated with a draw (home and away teams: 44%) and loss outcome (home: 33% and away teams: 32%). Finally, the Cox model showed that if the first goal was scored in the second half of the match, the probability of the second goal being scored was three times higher compared to the first half.

更新日期：2019-11-01

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