Since 2016, epizootics of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus have threatened the poultry sector in Europe. Because conventional prevention and control measures alone were insufficient in some contexts, the European Commission authorized poultry vaccination in 2023. Subsequently, France launched a nationwide duck vaccination campaign combined with a comprehensive surveillance plan. We used a mathematical model to simulate the transmission of HPAI viruses in vaccinated duck flocks and assess the effectiveness of a wide range of surveillance strategies. Sampling and testing dead ducks every week (enhanced passive surveillance) was the most sensitive (≈90%) and the most timely strategy. Active surveillance through monthly testing of a cross-sectional sample of live ducks was the least sensitive and timely strategy. Thus, we advise focusing HPAI surveillance efforts on enhanced passive surveillance and reducing active surveillance of live ducks.

自 2016 年以来，高致病性禽流感 （HPAI） 病毒的流行病一直威胁着欧洲的家禽业。由于在某些情况下仅靠常规预防和控制措施是不够的，因此欧盟委员会于 2023 年批准了家禽疫苗接种。随后，法国启动了全国性的鸭子疫苗接种运动，并结合全面的监测计划。我们使用数学模型来模拟 HPAI 病毒在接种疫苗的鸭群中的传播，并评估各种监测策略的有效性。每周对死鸭进行采样和检测 （加强被动监测） 是最敏感 （≈90%） 和最及时的策略。通过每月对活鸭的横断面样本进行主动监测是最不敏感和最及时的策略。因此，我们建议将 HPAI 监测工作集中在加强被动监测和减少对活鸭的主动监测上。