Risk assessment plays a vital role in facilitating the safety and sustainability of green hydrogen production. This study presents a risk assessment method incorporating causal qualitative analysis of System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA), and quantitative analysis of FBN. Based on the flexible adaptation of the typical STPA analysis process, the topology of STPA-ETA-based BN with hydrogen leakage as the critical event is established. It shows systematization, modularity and comprehensibility. The fuzzy Set Theory (FST) and expert judgment were adopted to solve the problem of inaccessible probabilities. The results of the prediction analysis indicate that the probability of hydrogen leakage is 12.63 %. The diagnostic analysis is capable of assessing the event's contribution to the hydrogen leakage accident, rating factors such as pump failures, flow control valve failures, hydrogen embrittlement, valve group manipulation risks and management risks, and environmental factors. The consequence analysis indicates that a timely manual emergency shutdown barrier plays a vital role in preventing the escalation of incidents. Finally, addressing the current diversity of sensitivity analysis methods in BN, the article summarizes six sensitivity analysis methods and explores their interrelationships in depth. Two categories of sensitivity analysis dimensions were found. The results of this study provide valuable insights for risk assessment, incident prevention, and emergency management in the PEMWE system. Also, the framework proposed in this study can be extended to other areas of reliability analysis.

中文翻译：

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水电解系统的风险评估框架：将系统理论过程分析 （STPA） 和事件树分析 （ETA） 映射到模糊贝叶斯网络 （FBN） 中


风险评估在促进绿色氢气生产的安全性和可持续性方面发挥着至关重要的作用。本研究提出了一种风险评估方法，结合了系统理论过程分析 （STPA） 和事件树分析 （ETA） 的因果定性分析，以及 FBN 的定量分析。基于典型 STPA 分析过程的灵活适应，建立了以氢气泄漏为关键事件的基于 STPA-ETA 的 BN 拓扑结构。它显示了系统化、模块化和可理解性。采用模糊集合论 （FST） 和专家判断来解决概率不可接近的问题。预测分析结果表明，氢气泄漏的概率为 12.63 %。诊断分析能够评估事件对氢气泄漏事故的贡献、评级因素，例如泵故障、流量控制阀故障、氢脆、阀组操纵风险和管理风险以及环境因素。后果分析表明，及时的手动紧急停机屏障在防止事件升级方面起着至关重要的作用。最后，针对 BN 中当前敏感性分析方法的多样性，本文总结了六种敏感性分析方法并深入探讨了它们的相互关系。发现了两类敏感性分析维度。本研究的结果为 PEMWE 系统中的风险评估、事件预防和应急管理提供了有价值的见解。此外，本研究中提出的框架可以扩展到可靠性分析的其他领域。