Flexible policies aimed at irrigated agriculture are essential to adapt to climate change. Despite the importance of this goal, little published work has conceptualized, formulated, developed, and applied an integrated optimization framework for irrigated agriculture to guide adaptation to climate-related water stress. This research addresses the question: how can water management plans for irrigated agriculture be designed to minimize economic losses caused by adapting to climate-induced water stress? The study answers this by developing an optimization approach that identifies water use patterns to minimize farm income losses during water shortages, considering three water shortage sharing programs. An optimization model, calibrated using positive mathematical programming, is applied to replicate historical land use while adapting to future water supplies that deviate from the historical pattern. The analysis focuses on two irrigated regions in North America’s Rio Grande Basin, illustrating land use, water use, and cropping patterns that minimize regional farm economic losses to shortages. These losses are assessed under three water-sharing strategies: intercrop and interdistrict trading (IIT), intercrop and intradistrict trading (IRT), and no trading (NT). The results demonstrate that IIT yields an average economic gain of $2.824 million per year, while IRT results in an average gain of $2.600 million per year compared to NT. These findings offer valuable insights for water managers, scientists, stakeholders, and policymakers tasked with developing irrigation management strategies in arid regions facing future water supply challenges. The methods developed and results shown here highlight a path forward, using scientific, economic, and policy innovations to strengthen agricultural livelihoods in regions facing uncertain water availability.

中文翻译：

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通过对干旱地区水市场的新评估，将农业水资源管理、经济学和气候适应政策结合起来


针对灌溉农业的灵活政策对于适应气候变化至关重要。尽管这一目标很重要，但很少有已发表的工作概念化、制定、开发和应用灌溉农业的综合优化框架，以指导适应与气候相关的水资源压力。本研究解决了以下问题：如何设计灌溉农业的水资源管理计划，以尽量减少因适应气候引起的水资源压力而造成的经济损失？该研究通过开发一种优化方法来回答这个问题，该方法确定用水模式，以最大限度地减少缺水期间的农业收入损失，并考虑了三个缺水共享计划。使用正数学规划校准的优化模型用于复制历史土地利用，同时适应偏离历史模式的未来供水。该分析侧重于北美里奥格兰德盆地的两个灌溉区域，说明了土地利用、用水和种植模式，这些模式可以最大限度地减少区域农业因短缺而造成的经济损失。这些损失根据三种水资源共享策略进行评估：作物间和区间交易 （IIT）、作物间和区内交易 （IRT） 以及不交易 （NT）。结果表明，与新台币相比，个人所得税平均每年产生 282.4 万美元的经济收益，而 IRT 每年平均产生 260 万美元的收益。这些发现为水资源管理者、科学家、利益相关者和政策制定者提供了宝贵的见解，这些决策者的任务是在面临未来供水挑战的干旱地区制定灌溉管理战略。 这里开发的方法和展示的结果突出了一条前进的道路，利用科学、经济和政策创新来加强面临水资源供应不确定性的地区的农业生计。