We examine how a better understanding of how climate change induces herder migration to other locations and subsequent conflicts with sedentary farmers influences respondents' support for policies that accommodate outgroup members. We conducted a pre-registered survey experiment with 550 residents of a conflict zone in Nigeria and discovered that as perceived herder vulnerability due to climate change increases, residents are inclined to support policies that accommodate these herders. In other words, rhetorical exposure that leads respondents to perceive climate change as the primary driver of herder migration to other communities increases support for accommodating policies (i.e., policies that support integrating outgroup members into their community). The effects are essentially consistent regardless of the respondents' proximity to the conflict, as measured by their loss experiences or their trust in outgroup members or dominant domestic institutions. These results highlight the need to conceptualise vulnerability as the primary driver of the herder-farmer conflict, which is a settled fact as opposed to other 'conspiratorial' narratives, allowing for new methods of mapping public opinion in favor of integrating both groups for peaceful coexistence in conflict zones.

中文翻译：

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气候变化和农牧民的暴力冲突：来自尼日利亚的实验证据


我们研究了更好地了解气候变化如何诱导牧民迁移到其他地方，以及随后与久坐不动的农民发生冲突如何影响受访者对容纳外围群体成员的政策的支持。我们对尼日利亚冲突地区的 550 名居民进行了一项预先注册的调查实验，发现随着气候变化导致牧民的脆弱性增加，居民倾向于支持照顾这些牧民的政策。换句话说，导致受访者将气候变化视为牧民迁移到其他社区的主要驱动力的修辞暴露增加了对包容政策（即支持外群体成员融入其社区的政策）的支持。无论受访者与冲突的距离如何，这些影响基本上是一致的，这是通过他们的损失经历或他们对外群体成员或占主导地位的国内机构的信任来衡量的。这些结果突出表明，需要将脆弱性概念化为牧民与农民冲突的主要驱动力，这是一个既定的事实，而不是其他“阴谋论”叙事，允许使用新的方法来绘制公众舆论，以支持整合两个群体，以便在冲突地区和平共处。