Globally, climate changes have significantly shifted the phenological phases and stages of rice, altered the duration of the growing season and negatively affected rice productivity due to flooding and drought. However, in the present study, the positive and negative impacts of inter‐annual climate variability on rice crops during phenological stages in agro‐climatic zones of Punjab for the period from 1989 to 2018. Initially, first difference approach was applied to minimise the impact of technological factors. Then, skewness and kurtosis tests were used to check the normalisation of the data. The standardisation method was used to normalise the data. Pearson correlation was used to determine the significant effects of climate variables on rice yield. The residuals were formed to confirm the effects of inter‐annual climate variability on rice yield in the phenological phases. The analysis revealed that a high variability of rice yields was investigated in the western region compared to the southern and western regions. The results showed a negative impact of heavy rainfall (flooding) on the years with low yields (2010, 2013 and 2016) in the Central region. Similarly, the years with low rice yields (1996, 2010, 2013 and 2014) in the Southern region were negatively affected by flooding at the time of sowing. A positive effect of rainfall was observed in the years with high rice yields (1995, 2002, 2009 and 2018) in the Western region. In contrast, the low‐yielding years 1994, 2003 and 2010 were negatively affected by flooding in the same years during the tillering stage. A high interannual maximum temperature variability was analysed in the Southern > Western > Central regions, leading to yield losses due to biotic stress during tillering and stem elongation stages. This is due to the immense reason of drought stress. The minimum temperature negatively affects the low‐yield years (2001, 2008, 2013 and 2016) in the central zone and the low‐yield years (2014, 2015 and 2016) in the southern zone during the reproductive stage. This research will help to develop new rice varieties that are more productive at high temperatures and require less water, leading to sustainable development in arid and semi‐arid regions.

中文翻译：

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年际气候变率对水稻 （Oryza sativa L.） 的积极和消极影响旁遮普邦农业气候区的作物


在全球范围内，气候变化显著改变了水稻的物候阶段和阶段，改变了生长季节的持续时间，并因洪水和干旱而对水稻生产力产生了负面影响。然而，在本研究中，1989 年至 2018 年期间旁遮普邦农业气候区物候阶段气候变率对水稻作物的积极和消极影响。最初，采用第一差分方法以尽量减少技术因素的影响。然后，使用偏度和峰度检验来检查数据的归一化。采用标准化方法对数据进行标准化。采用 Pearson 相关法确定气候变量对水稻产量的显著影响。形成残差是为了证实年际气候变率对物候阶段水稻产量的影响。分析显示，与南部和西部地区相比，西部地区水稻产量的差异很大。结果显示，强降雨（洪水）对中部地区低产年份（2010 年、2013 年和 2016 年）有负面影响。同样，南部地区水稻产量低的年份（1996 年、2010 年、2013 年和 2014 年）在播种时受到洪水的负面影响。在西部地区水稻产量高的年份（1995 年、 2002 年、2009 年和 2018 年）观察到降雨的积极影响。相比之下，1994 年、 2003 年和 2010 年在分蘖期受到同年洪水的负面影响。在南部 > 西部 > 中部地区分析了较高的年际最高温度变化，导致分蘖和茎伸长阶段由于生物胁迫而造成产量损失。 这是由于干旱压力的巨大原因。在繁殖阶段，最低温度对中部地区的低产年份 （2001、2008、2013 和 2016） 和南部地区的低产年份 （2014、2015 和 2016） 产生负面影响。这项研究将有助于开发在高温下产量更高且需要更少水的新水稻品种，从而实现干旱和半干旱地区的可持续发展。