BACKGROUND Homicide is the leading cause of death among young people in Latin America, one of the world's most violent regions. Poverty is widely considered a key cause of violence, but theories suggest different effects of poverty, depending on when it is experienced in the life-course. Longitudinal studies of violence are scarce in Latin America, and very few prospective data are available worldwide to test different life-course influences on homicide. METHODS In a prospective birth cohort study following 5914 children born in southern Brazil, we examined the role of poverty at birth, in early childhood, and in early adulthood on violence and homicide perpetration, in criminal records up to age 30 years. A novel Structured Life Course Modelling Approach was used to test competing life-course hypotheses about 'sensitive periods', 'accumulation of risk', and 'downward mobility' regarding the influence of poverty on violence and homicide. RESULTS Cumulative poverty and poverty in early adulthood were the most important influences on violence and homicide perpetration. This supports the hypothesis that early adulthood is a sensitive period for the influence of poverty on lethal and non-lethal violence. Results were replicable using different definitions of poverty and an alternative outcome of self-reported fights. CONCLUSION Cumulative poverty from childhood to adulthood was an important driver of violence and homicide in this population. However, poverty experienced in early adulthood was especially influential, suggesting the importance of proximal mechanisms for violence in this context, such as unemployment, organized crime, drug trafficking, and ineffective policing and justice systems.

中文翻译：

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贫困对暴力和凶杀的生命历程影响：30 年巴西出生队列研究。


背景 凶杀是拉丁美洲年轻人的主要死因，拉丁美洲是世界上暴力最严重的地区之一。贫困被广泛认为是暴力的一个关键原因，但理论表明，贫困的影响各不相同，这取决于它在生命历程中的经历时间。拉丁美洲对暴力的纵向研究很少，全世界几乎没有前瞻性数据来测试不同的生命历程对凶杀的影响。方法 在一项对巴西南部出生的 5914 名儿童进行的前瞻性出生队列研究中，我们检查了出生时、幼儿期和成年早期贫困对暴力和凶杀犯罪的影响，在 30 岁以下的犯罪记录中。一种新的结构化生命历程建模方法被用来检验关于贫困对暴力和凶杀影响的“敏感期”、“风险积累”和“向动”的竞争性生命历程假设。结果 累积贫困和成年早期贫困是对暴力和凶杀犯罪的最重要影响。这支持了这样一个假设，即成年早期是贫困对致命和非致命暴力影响的敏感时期。使用不同定义的贫困和自我报告的打架的替代结果，结果是可复制的。结论 从童年到成年的累积贫困是该人群暴力和凶杀的重要驱动因素。然而，成年早期经历的贫困尤其具有影响力，这表明在这种情况下暴力的直接机制的重要性，例如失业、有组织犯罪、毒品贩运以及无效的警务和司法系统。