Previous work in International Studies Quarterly shows higher levels of humanitarian aid prolong civil conflicts. It also finds, among conflict–years in which aid is received, that this conflict-prolonging effect is more acute in insurgency-based civil conflicts, albeit with weaker supporting evidence. However, I show this work accidentally generated its conflict duration variable incorrectly, with the duration measuring time since January 1, 1960, not time since civil conflict onset. The duration values also exclude the first at-risk day for the first observation in each conflict, which drops true one-day durations from the estimation sample. I rerun the original analysis with the corrected duration coding and find evidence that supports the opposite of the author's main hypothesis: higher levels of humanitarian aid either have no effect on or shorten civil conflict duration. Additionally, the weak evidence for the author's second hypothesis mostly disappears, depending on the conflict's duration.

中文翻译：

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日历与分析时间：重新分析人道主义援助与国内冲突持续时间之间的关系


《国际研究季刊》之前的研究表明，人道主义援助水平的提高会延长国内冲突。它还发现，在接受援助的冲突年份中，这种冲突延长效应在叛乱引发的国内冲突中更为严重，尽管支持证据较弱。然而，我展示了这项工作意外地错误地生成了冲突持续时间变量，持续时间测量的是自 1960 年 1 月 1 日以来的时间，而不是自内战爆发以来的时间。持续时间值还排除每次冲突中第一次观察的第一个有风险的日期，这会从估计样本中删除真实的单日持续时间。我使用更正的持续时间编码重新运行原始分析，并找到支持作者主要假设相反的证据：更高水平的人道主义援助要么对内战持续时间没有影响，要么会缩短内战持续时间。此外，根据冲突的持续时间，作者第二个假设的微弱证据大多消失。