s What drives refugee movements? Focusing on host countries' domestic political institutions, we argue that refugee entry is determined by the political regimes that shape the incentives of both host governments and displaced persons. Specifically, we theorize that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between political regimes and the volume of refugee entries. When the host country is autocratic, refugee volume becomes smaller due to displaced persons’ unwillingness to risk the high uncertainty of life under such regimes, and when the host country is democratic, refugee volume is similarly curbed due to democratic constraints on the host government. Consequently, a majority of refugees are clustered into anocratic regimes. Using a global dataset, a series of statistical analyses found strong evidence in support of our theoretical expectations regarding not only the hypothesized correlation between regime type and refugee movements but also the preferences of host governments and displaced persons that we theorize underlie this relationship.

中文翻译：

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政治制度和难民入境：流离失所者和东道国政府的偏好和决定

是什么推动了难民的流动？我们着眼于东道国的国内政治制度，认为难民入境是由影响东道国政府和流离失所者双方动机的政治制度决定的。具体来说，我们推测政治制度与难民入境数量之间存在倒U形关系。当东道国实行专制时，难民数量会减少，因为流离失所者不愿意在这种政权下冒生活高度不确定性的风险；而当东道国实行民主时，难民数量同样会因东道国政府的民主约束而受到抑制。因此，大多数难民都聚集到了无政府政权中。使用全球数据集，一系列统计分析发现了强有力的证据来支持我们的理论预期，不仅涉及政权类型与难民流动之间的假设相关性，而且还涉及我们理论上认为构成这种关系的东道国政府和流离失所者的偏好。