This study comprehensively analyzed the impact of transportation policy tools on the Korean road transport system, economy, and environment. To facilitate this analysis, we devised a national integrated computable general equilibrium model, encompassing vehicle dynamics and choice mechanisms. We assessed six policy scenarios, along with three policy mix scenarios. Our findings demonstrate the effectiveness of battery electric vehicle (EV) transition strategies, such as diesel vehicle phase-outs, subsidies, and a sales ban on internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV), in reducing CO2 emissions and enhancing gross domestic product. The existing transportation policy mix falls short of achieving carbon neutrality in the transportation sector, which requires additional measures like EV subsidies, vehicle-kilometers-traveled tax, and prohibition on ICEV sales. Furthermore, the provision of subsidies for EVs, when paired with an economy-wide cap-and-trade policy, holds the potential to improve overall economic performance while mitigating the rebound effect that is detrimental to the environment.

中文翻译：

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韩国道路交通脱碳：电动汽车转型政策的作用

本研究综合分析了交通政策工具对韩国道路交通系统、经济和环境的影响。为了促进这一分析，我们设计了一个国家综合可计算一般均衡模型，包括车辆动力学和选择机制。我们评估了六种政策情景以及三种政策组合情景。我们的研究结果证明了纯电动汽车 (EV) 转型战略（例如淘汰柴油车、补贴和禁止销售内燃机汽车 (ICEV)）在减少二氧化碳排放和提高国内生产总值方面的有效性。现有的交通政策组合不足以实现交通部门的碳中和，这需要额外的措施，如电动汽车补贴、车辆行驶里程税和禁止ICEV销售。此外，为电动汽车提供补贴与整个经济范围的限额与交易政策相结合，有可能改善整体经济表现，同时减轻对环境有害的反弹效应。