Basic economic logic, which often simplifies assessments and explanations of agricultural policy issues, is vitally important in communicating with policy-makers. Resources are limited, and there is a premium on getting decisions at least approximately right first time. Examples from southern Africa illustrate the importance of parity pricing, and its links to household food security (Lesotho), price risk, the emergence of an agricultural futures market, and its central role in allocating scarce agricultural resources (South Africa). Insights derived from an appreciation of parity pricing are relevant in other national contexts and also help explain how international grain markets operate. The parity pricing concept provides a framework for sense-checking complicated debates relating to two issues that have been prominent in recent years; first, whether and to what extent speculation in futures markets has been a driver of agricultural price spikes, and second, how far indirect land use change (ILUC), triggered by the use of agricultural feedstocks to produce renewable energy, is a material issue. These issues are likely to be of heightened importance in the face of climate change. Each emphasises that agricultural economics matters, and that it matters that we get the economics right.

中文翻译：

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“因为这很重要”

基本经济逻辑通常会简化对农业政策问题的评估和解释，对于与政策制定者的沟通至关重要。资源是有限的，并且至少在第一次就做出大约正确的决策是有溢价的。南部非洲的例子说明了平价定价的重要性及其与家庭粮食安全（莱索托）、价格风险、农产品期货市场的出现及其在分配稀缺农业资源中的核心作用（南非）的联系。从平价定价升值中得出的见解与其他国家的情况相关，也有助于解释国际粮食市场的运作方式。平价定价概念为合理检查与近年来突出的两个问题相关的复杂辩论提供了一个框架；首先，期货市场的投机是否以及在多大程度上是农产品价格飙升的推动因素；其次，使用农业原料生产可再生能源所引发的间接土地利用变化（ILUC）在多大程度上是一个重大问题。面对气候变化，这些问题可能变得更加重要。每个人都强调农业经济学很重要，而且我们掌握正确的经济学也很重要。