Public support for ambitious climate policies and carbon prices that have direct costs for voters may depend on policy sequencing. Policy sequencing theory suggests that the strategic ordering of policies into sequences that initially create benefits can subsequently increase support for higher carbon prices. However, systematic quantitative evidence about the effects of sequencing on public support is lacking. We provide novel theoretical and empirical insights on the mechanisms through which strategic policy sequencing affects public support for climate policies. We generated these insights using geospatial data and a representative conjoint experiment with Swiss voters conducted just before the popular vote on an amendment to the Federal Act on the Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in June 2021. Our evidence shows that the perceived effectiveness of prior policy-induced benefits is related to more public support for higher carbon prices across sectors. Moreover, we find that more opportunity structures for low-emission alternatives—like higher EV charging station density—are associated with increased public support for carbon prices in the sector where the former material benefits occur. Our results also imply that positive policy perceptions of prior climate policies are related to increased support, particularly among conservative voters and those who do not regard climate change as a salient issue. Thus, strategic policy sequencing could be an effective strategy for broadening public support for ambitious climate policies.

中文翻译：

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政策排序可以增加公众对雄心勃勃的气候政策的支持

公众对雄心勃勃的气候政策和碳价格的支持可能会取决于政策的排序，这会给选民带来直接成本。政策排序理论表明，对政策进行战略排序，最初创造效益可以随后增加对更高碳价的支持。然而，关于测序对公众支持的影响，缺乏系统的定量证据。我们就战略政策排序影响公众对气候政策支持的机制提供新颖的理论和实证见解。我们利用地理空间数据以及在 2021 年 6 月对《联邦减少温室气体排放法案》修正案进行全民投票之前与瑞士选民进行的代表性联合实验得出了这些见解。我们的证据表明，先前政策的感知有效性-带来的好处与公众对各部门更高碳价的更多支持有关。此外，我们发现，低排放替代方案的更多机会结构（例如更高的电动汽车充电站密度）与公众对碳价格的支持增加有关，而在该行业中，以前的物质利益是可以实现的。我们的结果还表明，对先前气候政策的积极政策认知与支持的增加有关，特别是在保守派选民和那些不认为气候变化是一个突出问题的人中。因此，战略政策排序可能是扩大公众对雄心勃勃的气候政策支持的有效策略。