This study explores the changing patterns of the length of stay (LOS) at Australian residential aged care facilities during 2008–2018 and likely trends up to 2040. The expected LOS was estimated via the hazard function of exiting from such a facility and its heterogeneity by residents’ sociodemographic characteristics using an improved Cox regression model. Data were sourced from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. In-sample modelling results reveal that the estimated LOS differed by age (in general, shorter for older groups), marital status (longer for the widowed) and sex (longer for females). In addition, the estimated LOS increased slowly from 2008–2009 to 2016–2017 but declined steadily thereafter. Out-of-sample predictions suggest that the declining trend of the estimated LOS will continue until 2040 and that the longest LOS (approximately 37 months) will be observed among widowed females aged 50–79 years. Relative uncertainty measures are provided. The results portray the current changing landscape and the future trend of residential aged care use in Australia, which can inform the development of optimised residential aged care policies to support ageing Australians more effectively.

本研究探讨了 2008 年至 2018 年澳大利亚住宅老年护理机构住院时间 (LOS) 的变化模式以及到 2040 年的可能趋势。预期 LOS 是通过退出此类机构的风险函数及其异质性来估计的：使用改进的 Cox 回归模型分析居民的社会人口特征。数据来自澳大利亚健康与福利研究所。样本内建模结果表明，估计的 LOS 因年龄（一般来说，老年群体较短）、婚姻状况（丧偶者较长）和性别（女性较长）而有所不同。此外，预计LOS从2008-2009年到2016-2017年缓慢增长，但此后稳步下降。样本外预测表明，预计 LOS 的下降趋势将持续到 2040 年，最长的 LOS（约 37 个月）将出现在 50-79 岁的丧偶女性中。提供了相对不确定性测量。研究结果描绘了澳大利亚当前不断变化的格局和未来居家养老服务的使用趋势，可以为制定优化的居家养老政策提供参考，以更有效地支持澳大利亚老年人。