By combining 2012 Living Standard Measurement Survey cross-sectional survey responses and georeferenced conflict data, this study quantifies the effect of violent conflict on food security and dietary quality in Iraq. Specifically, it estimates the effect of physical insecurity on different food security dimensions, including caloric consumption and household dietary diversity. Because disrespecting war-related foreign national cemeteries is a war crime that discourages nearby fighting, instrumenting conflict intensity by the exogenous variation in distance between these sites and household place of residence addresses potential sources of bias. The instrumental variable analysis confirms the positive (negative) effect of conflict—deriving from state, non-state and one-sided violence (e.g., attacks by the Islamic State)—on per capita caloric consumption (household dietary diversity), which although counterintuitive is unsurprising given Iraq's relatively high-income levels and changes in dietary pattern. Given that the primary driver of conflict's positive effect on calories is increased consumption of carbohydrates and, to a lesser extent, saturated fat, these results suggest that in countries transitioning to Western-style diets, violent conflict may drive the population toward an unhealthier diet, contributing heavily to a growing national prevalence of nutrition-related non-communicable diseases.

中文翻译：

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伊拉克暴力冲突对卡路里消耗和膳食质量的影响

通过结合 2012 年生活水平测量调查横断面调查的答复和地理参考冲突数据，本研究量化了暴力冲突对伊拉克粮食安全和饮食质量的影响。具体来说，它估计了身体不安全对不同粮食安全维度的影响，包括热量消耗和家庭饮食多样性。由于不尊重与战争有关的外国国家公墓是一种战争罪，会阻碍附近的战斗，因此通过这些地点与家庭居住地之间距离的外在变化来衡量冲突强度可以解决潜在的偏见来源。工具变量分析证实了冲突——源自国家、非国家和片面暴力（例如伊斯兰国的袭击）——对人均热量消耗（家庭饮食多样性）的积极（消极）影响，尽管这有悖常理。考虑到伊拉克相对较高的收入水平和饮食模式的变化，这一点并不令人意外。鉴于冲突对卡路里产生积极影响的主要驱动因素是碳水化合物的消耗增加，以及在较小程度上饱和脂肪的消耗，这些结果表明，在向西式饮食过渡的国家中，暴力冲突可能会促使人们采用不健康的饮食，导致全国营养相关非传染性疾病患病率不断上升。