A two-child policy has been in effect in rural areas in multiple Indian states for over 2 decades. We examine the effectiveness of the policy on fertility, sex ratio, and female infant mortality. We utilize data from the fourth round of the National Family Health Survey (2015–2016) and use propensity score matching models to examine whether the policy influences household fertility behavior. First, fertility behavior of women residing in policy states who married before the mandate are compared to those who married after the mandate. Second, fertility behavior of women residing in policy states are compared to those living in non-policy states. The policy is found to lower the number of children in a household and to decrease the likelihood of having more than two children. However, pre-policy absence of a male child is positively and statistically significantly associated with excess fertility, higher proportion of post-policy male children, and higher female infant mortality among rural households with at least two children before the policy was implemented.

印度多个邦的农村地区实施二胎政策已经有二十多年了。我们研究了生育率、性别比和女婴死亡率政策的有效性。我们利用第四轮全国家庭健康调查（2015-2016年）的数据，利用倾向得分匹配模型来检验政策是否影响家庭生育行为。首先，将居住在政策州、在强制执行前结婚的妇女的生育行为与在强制执行后结婚的妇女的生育行为进行比较。其次，将居住在政策国家的妇女的生育行为与生活在非政策国家的妇女的生育行为进行比较。人们发现该政策可以减少家庭中孩子的数量，并降低生育两个以上孩子的可能性。然而，政策实施前的男孩缺失与政策实施前有至少两个孩子的农村家庭的过度生育、政策实施后男孩比例较高以及女婴死亡率较高呈显着正相关。