The Netherlands is faced with an ageing society. This raises concerns about the sustainability of households’ current wellbeing reflected in household disposable income. In this article we aim to analyse the effects of population changes on the difference between labour income and age-specific consumption, defined as the lifecycle deficit in the National Transfer Accounts (NTA). To conduct this analysis, we extend the macro framework of National Accounts (SNA) with demographic data, detailed household sector data and detailed employment data, all classified by age groups. Using 2016 as the base year, we construct four scenarios for the year 2025 and use a Bayesian estimation approach to arrive at a complete and consistent framework of estimates for each of these scenarios. We find that the lifecycle deficit of the Dutch household sector worsens for all age groups. For the young this is partly covered by additional transfers received, but all households become more dependent on their assets and savings. To maintain the current level of disposable income wages must rise in all scenarios.

荷兰正面临老龄化社会。这引发了人们对反映在家庭可支配收入中的家庭当前福祉的可持续性的担忧。在本文中，我们旨在分析人口变化对劳动收入和特定年龄消费之间差异的影响，定义为国民转移账户 (NTA) 中的生命周期赤字。为了进行这项分析，我们使用人口数据、详细的家庭部门数据和详细的就业数据扩展了国民账户 (SNA) 的宏观框架，这些数据均按年龄组分类。以 2016 年为基准年，我们构建了 2025 年的四种情景，并使用贝叶斯估计方法为每种情景得出完整且一致的估计框架。我们发现荷兰家庭部门的生命周期赤字在所有年龄组中都在恶化。对于年轻人来说，这部分由收到的额外转移支付，但所有家庭都变得更加依赖他们的资产和储蓄。为了维持目前的可支配收入水平，必须在所有情况下都提高工资。