气候是水稻生长的主要因素之一。了解缅甸 1901 年至 1939 年期间气候变化与水稻产量之间的关系,可以清楚地了解气候变化对水稻产量的影响,因为对流域的人为干预较少,几乎没有使用化肥或高-当时的水稻品种。然而,气候变率的定量分析及其对水稻生产的影响在历史时期尚未得到足够的科学关注。首先,分析了1901—1939年间降雨和水稻产量的变化趋势,包括降雨变化对水稻产量的影响,从降雨特征的多个角度,如季节性降雨、各种降雨指数、降雨异常和月降雨变化。然后,使用多元回归分析研究了水稻产量与降雨之间的关系,以显示降雨时空变化如何影响水稻产量和产量,包括影响缅甸每个地区水稻产量的基本因素。还探讨了这一时期缅甸水稻生产的历史发展。我们的研究结果表明,不仅降雨的年度变化,而且特定年份的月变化也可能影响水稻产量。作物生长前期或中期降雨过多或作物生长前期中期或后期降雨较少,可能导致缅甸殖民时期水稻减产。此外,结果表明,尽管不同时期的降雨异常差异很大,但水稻产量异常清楚地表明了水稻产量高于或低于平均水稻产量的时期。在 1910 年之前,沿海地区和 1918 年之前在三角洲、旱地和丘陵地带观察到的水稻产量大多高于平均水平。这项研究的结果表明,选定的降雨指数可能对水稻产量产生积极或消极的影响,包括从一个地区到另一个地区的影响程度不同,具体取决于气候带和农业生态系统。在 1910 年之前,沿海地区和 1918 年之前在三角洲、旱地和丘陵地带观察到的水稻产量大多高于平均水平。这项研究的结果表明,选定的降雨指数可能对水稻产量产生积极或消极的影响,包括从一个地区到另一个地区的影响程度不同,具体取决于气候带和农业生态系统。在 1910 年之前,沿海地区和 1918 年之前在三角洲、旱地和丘陵地带观察到的水稻产量大多高于平均水平。这项研究的结果表明,选定的降雨指数可能对水稻产量产生积极或消极的影响,包括从一个地区到另一个地区的影响程度不同,具体取决于气候带和农业生态系统。
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Exploration of spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and their impact on rice production in Burma in 1901–1939 during the colonial period
Climate is one of the main factors for rice crop growth. Understanding the relationship between climate variability and rice production during the period from 1901 to 1939 in Burma can give a clear picture of the impact of climate variability on rice yield since there were fewer human interventions on the catchment and almost no use of chemical fertilizer or high-yielding rice varieties at that time. However, the quantitative analysis of climate variability and its impact on rice production has not yet been paid sufficient scientific attention for the historic period. First, the changing trends of rainfall and rice yield between 1901 and 1939 were analyzed, including the effect of rainfall variability on rice production from multiple perspectives regarding rainfall characteristics, such as seasonal rainfall, various rainfall indices, rainfall anomalies, and monthly rainfall variability. Then, the relationship between rice yield and rainfall was investigated using multiple regression analysis to show how rainfall spatial and temporal variabilities have influenced rice yield and production, including essential factors that affected rice yield in each Burma district. The historical development of rice production in Burma during the period was also explored. Our findings indicate that not only the annual variability of rainfall, but also its monthly variability within a particular year likely influenced rice production. Excessive rainfall in the early or middle stage of crop growth or less during the early-middle or latter half of crop growth possibly caused the rice yield reduction in Burma during the colonial period. Furthermore, the results indicated that although rainfall anomalies widely differed from period to period, rice yield anomalies clearly showed the distinction of periods with higher or lower rice yields than average rice yield. Mostly higher than average rice yield was observed before 1910 in the Coastal Zone and before 1918 in the Delta, Dry, and Hilly Zones. The results of this study imply that selected rainfall indices could affect rice yield, positively or negatively, including the varied magnitude of their effects from one district to another, depending on climatic zones and agricultural ecosystems.