使用罗素-麦克弗伦效应预测地磁活动的每日测定BZ,Space Weather

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使用罗素-麦克弗伦效应预测地磁活动的每日测定BZ
Space Weather ( IF 3.8 ) Pub Date : 2019-04-25 , DOI: 10.1029/2018sw002098
B. V. Jackson ₁ , H.‐S. Yu ₁ , A. Buffington ₁ , P. P. Hick ₁ , M. Tokumaru ₂ , K. Fujiki ₂ , J. Kim ₃ , J. Yun ₄

Affiliation

自上个十年中期以来，加州大学圣地亚哥分校将磁场数据纳入其空间地球环境研究所行星际闪烁体层摄影术分析中。使用“当前工作表源曲面”模型（Zhao＆Hoeksema，1995，https：//doi.org/10.1029/94JA02266）从太阳表面向上外推这些数据，以提供RTN坐标中的行星际场的预测。多年以来，该技术变得越来越复杂，并允许将不同类型的磁图数据（SOLIS，全球振荡网络组等）并入现场外推法。在地球上，可以通过多种方式显示这些字段，包括地心太阳磁层（GSM）B _x，B _y和B _z坐标。每天显示，源自“当前工作表源曲面”模型的GSM B _z与B _z字段的低分辨率（几天变化）现场测量_值显示出显着的正相关。如Russell和McPherron（1973，https://doi.org/10.1029/JA078i001p00092）所示，B _z的纳米特斯拉变体在春季和秋季最大。更重要的是，我们发现每日变化与地磁Kp和Dst指数变化相关，并且从正B到负B _z的减少与由NOAA空间天气预测定义的中小地磁风暴活动高度相关。中心行星Kp值。在这里，我们提供了对预测B _z的11年研究场，从全球振荡网络组磁图的推算中得出。我们提供了该技术的地磁风暴预测能力的技能得分分析，从而可以预测中等程度的增强的地磁风暴活动。UCSD和韩国太空气象中心目前正在运营一个网站，该网站可以提前几天预测这种低分辨率GSM B _z场分量的变化。

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A Daily Determination of BZ Using the Russell‐McPherron Effect to Forecast Geomagnetic Activity

Since the middle of the last decade, UCSD has incorporated magnetic field data in its Institute for Space‐Earth Environmental Research interplanetary scintillation tomographic analysis. These data are extrapolated upward from the solar surface using the Current Sheet Source Surface model (Zhao & Hoeksema, 1995, https://doi.org/10.1029/94JA02266) to provide predictions of the interplanetary field in RTN coordinates. Over the years this technique has become ever more sophisticated, and allows different types of magnetogram data (SOLIS, Global Oscillation Network Group, etc.,) to be incorporated in the field extrapolations. At Earth, these fields can be displayed in a variety of ways, including Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric (GSM) B_x, B_y, and B_z coordinates. Displayed daily, the Current Sheet Source Surface model‐derived GSM B_z shows a significant positive correlation with the low‐resolution (few day variation) in situ measurements of the B_z field. The nano‐Tesla variations of B_z maximize in spring and fall as Russell and McPherron (1973, https://doi.org/10.1029/JA078i001p00092) have shown. More significantly, we find that the daily variations are correlated with geomagnetic Kp and Dst index variations, and that a decrease from positive to negative B_z has a high correlation with minor‐to‐moderate geomagnetic storm activity, as defined by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center planetary Kp values. Here we provide an 11‐year study of the predicted B_z field, from the extrapolation of the Global Oscillation Network Group‐magnetograms. We provide a skill‐score analysis of the technique's geomagnetic storm prediction capability, which allows forecasts of moderate enhanced geomagnetic storm activity. UCSD and the Korean Space Weather Center currently operate a website that predicts this low‐resolution GSM B_z field component variation several days in advance.

更新日期：2019-04-25

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