The EU Emission Trading System (EU ETS) has been shown to have reduced emissions in the participating countries and industries since its adoption in 2005. However, there is less evidence on the shifting of production outside EU to avoid emission controls. We study this so-called carbon leakage with gravity analysis of international trade flows and carbon intensities of trade. We utilize the gravity model on a sectoral level and study its implications empirically. Our findings with new OECD data indicate that some carbon leakage has in fact occurred due to the EU ETS, resulting in higher carbon content of imports to the EU. At the same time, we show that the EU ETS has induced lower carbon content of exports from the EU. In further analysis, we show that the carbon leakage we find has caused a moderate increase in total carbon content embodied in the EU’s trade, despite the decreases in exported carbon.

中文翻译：

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贸易流动、碳泄漏和欧盟排放交易体系

自 2005 年采用以来，欧盟排放交易体系 (EU ETS) 已被证明减少了参与国家和行业的排放。然而，很少有证据表明将生产转移到欧盟以外以避免排放控制。我们通过对国际贸易流量和贸易碳强度的重力分析来研究这种所谓的碳泄漏。我们在部门层面上利用引力模型，并根据经验研究其影响。我们对经合组织新数据的研究结果表明，欧盟排放交易体系实际上已经发生了一些碳泄漏，导致欧盟进口产品的碳含量更高。同时，我们表明欧盟排放交易体系已导致欧盟出口产品的碳含量降低。在进一步的分析中，我们发现，尽管出口碳减少，但我们发现的碳泄漏导致欧盟贸易中的总碳含量适度增加。