Australia faced a severe energy crisis in 2022, which prompted the Australian Energy Market Operator to halt in National Electricity Market operations from June 15 to June 24. In this study, which examines half-hourly data from Australia’s National Electricity Market between 2010 and 2016, we aim to demonstrate the notable and intended consequences of the carbon tax, which was enacted in 2012 and repealed in 2014. Our findings show that this tax had a significant impact on wholesale prices. It also induced substitution effects in the generation mix. If these effects had persisted, the electricity generation landscape in 2022 would have been different. Specifically, the economic feasibility of coal would have decreased and that of gas would have increased. As a result, the composition of electricity generating capacity leading up to the 2022 crisis would have been altered.

中文翻译：

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碳税和澳大利亚国家电力市场的危机

澳大利亚在 2022 年面临严重的能源危机，这促使澳大利亚能源市场运营商从 6 月 15 日至 6 月 24 日停止了国家电力市场的运营。在这项研究中，研究了 2010 年至 2016 年间澳大利亚国家电力市场的每半小时数据，我们的目的是展示碳税的显着和预期后果，该税于 2012 年颁布并于 2014 年废除。我们的研究结果表明，该税对批发价格产生了重大影响。它还在世代组合中引发了替代效应。如果这些影响持续存在，2022 年的发电格局将会有所不同。具体来说，煤炭的经济可行性将会下降，而天然气的经济可行性将会增加。因此，导致 2022 年危机的发电能力的构成将会发生变化。