This research investigates the applicability of the renowned “impossible trinity” hypothesis within the context of energy instability, contributing a unique perspective to the relevant literature. Through asymmetrical analysis of the optimal trilemma policy choices aimed at mitigating energy volatility, we dissect energy instability into three dimensions: consumption, generation, and price volatility. Utilizing a generalized panel quantile regression approach, the study leverages an unbalanced panel dataset encompassing 184 countries over the period from 1969 to 2022. Empirical findings demonstrate that financial openness (FOP) emerges as a potent individual mitigator of energy instability, particularly at higher quantiles, outperforming both monetary policy independence (MPI) and exchange rate stability (ERS). Conversely, a closed financial system (ERS and MPI) provides partial mitigation, while a fully flexible exchange rate regime (MPI and FOP) offers comprehensive alleviation of energy instability. The results underscore the contrasting roles of financial development, which exacerbates energy volatility, as well as technology development, which acts as a mitigating factor. Importantly, the interactions of financial development and technological development with trilemma policies yield varying effects on energy instability. Policymakers should thus prioritize a fully flexible exchange rate regime to enhance energy stability, especially during times of uncertainty, and consider the intricate correlations among financial, technological, and trilemma policy factors for effective energy stability management.

中文翻译：

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缓解能源不稳定：三难选择、金融发展和技术进步的影响

这项研究调查了著名的“不可能三位一体”假说在能源不稳定背景下的适用性，为相关文献提供了独特的视角。通过对旨在缓解能源波动的最优三难政策选择的不对称分析，我们将能源不稳定分解为三个维度：消费、发电和价格波动。该研究采用广义面板分位数回归方法，利用涵盖 1969 年至 2022 年期间 184 个国家的不平衡面板数据集。实证研究结果表明，金融开放 (FOP) 成为能源不稳定的有效个体缓解因素，特别是在较高分位数时，表现优于货币政策独立性（MPI）和汇率稳定性（ERS）。相反，封闭的金融体系（ERS和MPI）可以部分缓解，而完全灵活的汇率制度（MPI和FOP）可以全面缓解能源不稳定。研究结果强调了金融发展和技术发展的截然不同的作用，金融发展加剧了能源波动，而技术发展则起到了缓解因素的作用。重要的是，金融发展和技术发展与三难政策的相互作用对能源不稳定产生不同的影响。因此，政策制定者应优先考虑完全灵活的汇率制度，以增强能源稳定性，特别是在不确定时期，并考虑金融、技术和三难政策因素之间复杂的相关性，以实现有效的能源稳定管理。