What explains the initiation and escalation of International Criminal Court (ICC) involvement in a situation? In light of growing charges of bias against the court, understanding the determinants of ICC involvement is critically important. Building upon research on bounded discretion at international courts, we argue that two potentially competing forces influence the court. While prioritizing impartiality should lead the court to target perpetrators of the gravest violations of human rights in states with domestic impunity, prioritizing powerful states’ interests suggests that the court may avoid involvement in powerful states and those with close ties to powerful countries. We test these arguments using original data on ICC involvement and a novel estimator that accounts for the sequential nature of ICC activity. We find that the court acts more in accordance with the legal mandate when initiating preliminary examinations, but power politics play a more dominant role at the formal investigation stage. These findings have several implications for academic and policy work on both the ICC and international courts more generally.

中文翻译：

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了解国际刑事法院参与的决定因素：法律授权和强权政治

如何解释国际刑事法院 (ICC) 介入并升级的情况？鉴于对法院存在偏见的指控越来越多，了解国际刑事法院参与的决定因素至关重要。基于对国际法院有限自由裁量权的研究，我们认为有两种潜在的竞争力量影响着法院。虽然优先考虑公正性应该导致法院将目标锁定在国内有罪不罚的国家中最严重侵犯人权的肇事者，但优先考虑强国的利益表明法院可以避免卷入强国以及与强国关系密切的国家。我们使用 ICC 参与的原始数据和解释 ICC 活动的顺序性质的新颖估计器来测试这些论点。我们发现，法院在启动初步审查时更多地按照法律授权行事，但在正式调查阶段强权政治更占主导地位。这些发现对国际刑事法院和国际法院的学术和政策工作具有多种影响。