The past 35 years have seen Bayesian models applied to many areas of the cognitive and brain sciences, which suggests that reasoning and decision-making may be rational. Wishful thinking provides a serious challenge, as it questions a core assumption of Bayesian belief updating. Melnikoff and Strohminger develop a Bayesian model that uses affective prediction errors and meets this challenge.

中文翻译：

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贝叶斯与人类推理中的偏见

过去 35 年里，贝叶斯模型应用于认知和脑科学的许多领域，这表明推理和决策可能是理性的。一厢情愿的想法带来了严峻的挑战，因为它质疑贝叶斯信念更新的核心假设。梅尔尼科夫和斯特罗明格开发了一种贝叶斯模型，该模型使用情感预测误差来应对这一挑战。