Hydrological ensemble forecasting is crucial for flood forecasting. However, the centralized architecture of hydrological ensemble forecasting systems requires time- and labour-intensive downloads and the installation of executable models and methods. This usage pattern impedes the reusability of forecasting models and techniques. To address these limitations, we propose an open online simulation strategy with three components: model sharing and integration, data sharing and adaptation, and parameter optimization and recommendation. The model sharing and integration method helps researchers publish forecasting models as web services for online simulation and integration. A reusable data sharing and adaptation method is established for managing and processing data to meet model requirements. In addition, the optimization and recommendation methods are intended to assist researchers in optimizing and recommending model parameters online based on the characteristics of different research regions. Finally, a prototype system and case study are constructed to verify the strategy's feasibility and capability.

中文翻译：

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一种开放的水文集合预报在线模拟策略

水文集合预报对于洪水预报至关重要。然而，水文集合预报系统的集中式架构需要大量时间和人力的下载以及可执行模型和方法的安装。这种使用模式阻碍了预测模型和技术的可重用性。为了解决这些限制，我们提出了一种开放的在线仿真策略，该策略包含三个组成部分：模型共享和集成、数据共享和适应以及参数优化和推荐。模型共享和集成方法帮助研究人员将预测模型发布为Web服务，以进行在线模拟和集成。建立可重用的数据共享和适配方法来管理和处理数据以满足模型要求。此外，优化和推荐方法旨在帮助研究人员根据不同研究区域的特点在线优化和推荐模型参数。最后，构建原型系统和案例研究来验证该策略的可行性和能力。