Recent flood events show that gaps in the communication channels from warning services to target groups inhibit mitigation. One approach addressing this issue is impact-based warning. We introduce a library-based surrogate flood model for the use in impact-based warning systems, tested for the main river network of Northern Switzerland. To validate the surrogate model, we compare the impacts to buildings, persons and workplaces with hazard classification, estimated with transient simulations for nine extreme precipitation scenarios. With 78 analyzed model regions, the surrogate approach reaches a Flood Area Index between 0.74 and 0.90 for each scenario (overall 0.84). The Critical Success Index calculated based on exposed persons is 0.77–0.93 (overall 0.89). Our prototype of a library-based flood surrogate model demonstrates the ability of accurately representing a same resolved transient model, bearing the potential to predict flood impacts nationwide in near real-time and the applicability to probabilistic forecasts.

最近的洪水事件表明，从预警服务到目标群体的沟通渠道存在差距，阻碍了缓解工作。解决这个问题的一种方法是基于影响的警告。我们引入了一种基于库的替代洪水模型，用于基于影响的预警系统，并针对瑞士北部的主要河网进行了测试。为了验证替代模型，我们将对建筑物、人员和工作场所的影响与危险分类进行比较，并通过九种极端降水情景的瞬态模拟进行估计。通过分析 78 个模型区域，替代方法使每种情景的洪水面积指数达到 0.74 到 0.90 之间（总体为 0.84）。根据暴露人员计算的关键成功指数为 0.77-0.93（总体为 0.89）。我们基于库的洪水替代模型原型展示了准确表示相同解析瞬态模型的能力，具有近实时预测全国范围洪水影响的潜力以及概率预测的适用性。